Spatial planning and dealing with uncertainties associated with future disasters
Spatial planning and dealing with uncertainties associated with future disasters
Decisions in the area of natural hazards are normally based on probabilities. However, the baseline trend is evolving due to climate change and other changing processes (demographic change, globalization etc.). In parallel, during the last years, the understanding of the role of government has been changed from a traditional approach where the state itself provides all kinds of public services to a model, which is characterized mainly by private services, while the state only guarantees the quality of those services that are of public interest. Thus, societies go from a “predict-and-control” type of governance systems to a more reflexive and adaptive practice of disaster risk management. The main aim of this chapter is to understand the extent to which present governance systems are capable of managing deep uncertainty related to future disasters, as well as to develop proposals and strategies to strengthen this response capacity.
Keywords: uncertainty, disaster risk management, natural hazards, future disasters, response capacity
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